Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Is the Economic Glass Half Full or Half Empty in 2009?

The glass half full -- Optimism about 2009 is that the current cycle is similar to others in its essential features. Similarities such as economic cycles are a way to wash out the excesses and restore imbalances of the preceding years. And a new cycle is created.

The glass half empty -- Pessimism for 2009 is that no past cycle has been so heavily supported by monetary authorities making regulation and government ownership a restriction on future innovation. No past cycle has had so much debt held by so many. And no past cycle has been affected so much by global events which have stripped away the benefits of global diversification.

Is this the start of a new financial era? I’m sure none of us really wants to go back to the greedy excesses of the past years only to have a repeat of the last year.

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